What happens next?

We're in a mess. None of the parties  promising good things if we vote for them will tell us, but tough times lie ahead. The symptoms are all around.Politics are unstable; the wipe out in Scotland, two elections and two referenda in three  years have broken the pattern of long periods of one party rule. Living standards are stuck, shored up only by record levels of debt. Growth since the Great Recession of 2008 has been pathetic.

Why? Because the British economy is failing. It can't now deliver. Manufacturing used to pay our way in the world but has shrunk from a third of GDP in the seventies to 10% today. The economy can't support the public spending, the services and the international committments  an advanced economy needs. Something has to give. No one will tell us what.

We can't pay our way in the world. The deficit is now 5% and rising, meaning that we must borrow overseas and sell off  assets to survive, leading to the highest level of foreign ownership in any advanced country with profits skills and demand exported as a result, creating a vicious circle where  sales keep the pound high and the high pound then boosts the deficit.

The North Sea oil was wasted to buy imports and keep tax revenues up rather than being invested as Norway has done, and is now running down.Membership of the European Union, supposed to boost us, now drains us with annual contributions around £17 billion and rising and a trade deficit of £ 50 billion, mainly with Germany accumulating ever larger surpluses which it won't recycle. We even have to  borrow to pay the bills to be damaged.

A gloomy prospect which will take tougher measures than we've experienced before to deal with it.Only two ways offer.The first is the Greek formula of squeezeing freezing and cutting to reduce costs, wages and public spending to new levels of competititveness ,building a low wage ,low cost,low skill economy.That painful process will take years It may not work even then if our competitors continue to grow

The second is the approach the young dragons have used of using a super competitive exchange rate to penalise imports and boost exports, building a powerful exporting sector benefitting from economies of scale and continuous upgrading. That means regional aid to spread the growth, an industrial policy to invest in new winners and sustain old ones, and  restraint on domestic demand to channel investment ,people and ability to exporting industry

Both are painful processes. The first reinforces existing trends. The second totally reverses the long term strategy of high exchange rates to please finance and fight inflation, free trade and market economics which preclude nationalistic economics and membership of the EU which prohibits the strategies Germany, China and the young dragons all used to grow. 

That's the choice the next government must make. Neither party seems inclined to think about it. Both would probably prefer to go on as we are with  a little tinkering and some redistribution. Yet to do that won't avoid damage. The huge debt bubble we've built up   to keep going may burst. The exchange rate of a country in peristent deficit must fall. Investors will flee and British firms escape, from prolonged uncertainty. Cuts in health, education , and housing will continue, unless we either increase taxes or boost the economy to pay for them. 

Which makes it time, more than time, to do some serious thinking about how we get out of the mess rather than the escapism of promising good things, happy times and an end to pain by voting for Snurple or Turple or even McGurple if you live in Scotland. If our politicians prefer to live in a fantasy world rather than tell us the truth they're condemning us to living in a much worse one.  

Lessons of Paxo stuffing

There are serious lessons to be learned from last night's Channel Four grilling of the Leader of the Opposition and the Prime Minister. 

Welcome to my TV 101 class

1. The separate grilling formula worked better than the leader confrontation because it allowed issues to be followed up, brains to be tested and politicians to be tested without all the shouting, and point scoring of the old format. The greatest benefit was to keep out Clegg. Piggy in the middle always emerges better from any confrontation between major parties, but he's no use because he can't form a government and, as events showed will compromise anything in his efforts to get into power. Takes only two to tango . Four is a clumsy quadrille
2. 
   
3. Paxo played the Telegraph reading Colonel Blimp rather than  the agile independent mind he used to be. Was this because he was slumming it for a new paymaster, Sky rather than the All Souls in exile of the BBC.The public were better, sharper and more to the point.
4. Hypothetical questions are bugger all use. Paxo asked too many "How much will you pay to get out of jail"? "How many immigrants will you let in?" "Will you press the nuclear button?" "How many sheep make a mutton pie" "how stupid can an interviewer be?"etc
5. A woman gets softer treatment than a man. It was left to the audience to understand how Theresa managed to dodge every question while Corby did at least make an effort to answer them.
6. Dredging up the past by recycling old clippings from the Daily Telegraph is a distortion of history and an emotional slur. Corbyn was attacked for dealing with the IRA but both Major and Blair dealt with them to get a settlement.
7. The public aren't daft and Faisal did a good job of reinforcing their points where Paxo performed for them and their reactions indicated they'd chuck him out.
8. Best to avoid the silly questions where the answer is obvious like "why don't all the daft things you advocated in the past appear to the manifesto?" Paxo didn't.
9. Everyone will make their own mind up on the basis of their own political conditioning about who won. That's good.
10. More. More. More. 

Nine days to save democracy

It's getting dreadfully close to decision day but hopeful trends have emerged in what looked at the start to be a coronation for Queen of the May installing a Tory government with a majority big enough to do whatever it wanted would have been a disaster for democracy.We know that the only thing we can trust the Conservative Party to do is to give to him that hath. by taking away from them that haven't So what can give our hopeless Labour Party hope even at this late stage?

First Australianisation hasn't worked. Australia, as those of us who've been there and lived to tell the tale is a country in which neither the McNaughton rules nor the Geneva convention apply to the most brutal politics in the world. Lyndon Crosby brought its basic rules with him to apply them for the benefit of the Conservative Party. They are:-

A) Ignore policy and keep repeating a mantra like Strong and Stable

B) Denigrate opposition by portraying them as disloyal, dishonest and mentally disturbed

C) Bang on about immigration, the yellow peril the brown peril or the Euro peril . Suggest departing them all to Sweet Rockall - or Luxembourg. Whichever is worst.

It worked in Oz so why not here? Unfortunately Theresa proved weak and wobbly, Jeremy began to come good (at last) and immigrants already here got upset. 

Second the big interests behind the Conservative party began to point out that they wouldn't accept Tory proposals. Business didn't like criticisms of greed , loosing cheap Labour or protecting its workers. Wealth got scared about paying for its care and vested interests got nervous about Brexit.

Thirdly people began to see through the fog that taxes were going to  increase, austerity was going to go on, the debt bubble was about to burst and a country unable to pay its way in the world was in a mess.All this caused a loss of faith in St Theresa's ability to work miracles.

Fourth there was a growing realisation that giving unlimited power to a party with a big majority and a weakened opposition would be disastrous for democracy, rights of the people, defence of living standards, jobs, the health service and education. 

 Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely, particularly if its handed to a party which has already proved itself so nasty and so dishonest  Remember they promised to bring peace and harmony in 1979. Look what's happened since.

Bugger party politics. Democracy is at stake . It's not a question of so many days to save the health service, or education, or defence, or social security,  or care homes. It's nine days to save our ailing democracy.  

Will there be a real election?

Is this beginning to turn into a real election rather than a coronation? A You Gov poll says the Tory lead is down to 5% and the cock up over elderly care has shown that Theresa can be weak and wobbly rather than strong and stable. Then when she's called to account she hides behind a brick wall and lies. Bad for confidence. Bad for a tough approach to EU negotiations.

It could be a rogue poll?  Fear produced by the Manchester horror can swing support back to government. Corbyn's rise may heighten fear of beardy weirdies (Branson please note) but if the gap really is closing then people might be realising what this election is really about.

It's not about Brexit. Even if Theresa wins all the seats outside Scotland it won't stop the EU treating her like Yanis Varoufakis in drag. Look how little use the Greek referendum was. It only made the EU terms nastier to punish Greece for whipping up the people against the sacred EU.It's not about all the nice things the Tory Party is promising. They'll revert to type when they win and their type can be nasty. It's not about Labour's plans most of which are good and necessary but useless because they'll not get chance to implement them.

It's about whether we want a government with a big majority which can do anything it wants because it has no opposition to drag it to the Centre ground , stop the follies, and argue for sense. 

A majority as big as originally seemed possible means an elective dictatorship. A government with a small one has to listen. The nation voted for such a balance in 2010 when it rejected a tired Labour Party but didn't give enough seats to the Tories to form a government. Same in 2015 when they still didn't want Labour but didn't endorse the Tories either.

People want government kept on a short lead. They prefer narrow majorities because that forces ministers to listen rather than ride roughshod over every thing. They want a strong opposition to check the bastards and stop the reign of prejudice. Mrs Thatcher demonstrated the dangers of that and they don't want to repeat it.

Hopefully balance is  what they'll vote for. It's certainly what Labour must fight for and their best we'll get if the nation prefers Theresa to Jeremy. If the polls continue to narrow that's what we'll get and it would be the best possible outcome until Labour looks like a party of government not a civil war on wheels.

Can we trust Theresa?

Normally an election is a choice between two different policies, two routes to the future. The differences may be hyped and over exaggerated. The reality never lives up to the prospects. But choice is still exciting, uncertain and the result is unpredictable.

Not this time. This election has all the excitement of predestination and the unpredictability of rigor mortis. Theresa's going to win and the only uncertainty is about how big  majority will be?

She's so sure of winning that the  manifesto is hers not the Conservative Party's. It's designed to give her a free hand and open the way to do the dirty on pensioners and tax payers by avoiding the usual commitments to do no harm to either.

She's committed to Brexit which wrong foots the LibDems who're finding less support than they expected for reversing it and a Labour Party manifestly divided on the issue, Yet there's nothing said on what kind of settlement. Just Brexit means Brexit. That could mean anything from staying in the Single market and paying to do so or full fronted confrontation followed by a walk out.The only commitment is to cut immigration down to tens of thousands.Which is plainly impossible.

So the only question is one which arises when the voting's over, the media have run out of vilification of Jeremy Corbyn, and Theresa has been installed on her throne of rolled up copies of the Daily Telegraph It's "can we trust Theresa?"

She's already disappointed. She promised not to hold an early election. She came in promising workers on the board. She's sold out on that. She promised to help the just about managing (JAMs) but hasn't.  She talked of cutting taxes but can't and now she's changed gear on dementia tax.

The Tory Party certainly isn't to be trusted. In dealing out the cards they always want, and manage, to slip a few aces to business and their class and they're not going t o clamour for shifting the burden from the badly off to wealth. Business is going to oppose workers on the board, restraints on bonuses, takeovers and top pay restraints

As for the EU if it lives up to its blustering and turns nasty however strong and stable she is she'll be forced to choose between going back humiliated or walking away damaged. Either will reignite the whole row about withdrawal, the fears of loss of jobs, decline of the City of London and controls on the Irish border. Not the happiest of prospects for government, the unity of the Tory party or Theresa's own future

At the moment the electorate is inclined to trust, though mainly because they don't trust Jeremy or Labour, so they have no real alternative.As for me I like the new language Theresa's learning though she'll never replace the Labour Party as protector of the people though I don't think Tory leopards will ever be happy wearing Labour's red spots and  I'm sure that only a strong opposition can keep them to their promises. But then I'm 100 percent biased.

EVERYBODY KNOWS. BUT NO ONE KNOWS 'OWT

This election is an exercise in predestination. The outcomes are predetermined . The public knows its being lied to by all the parties. We know in advance what the result's going to be. Yet no one has any idea of what's going to happen then. We're so comforted by certainties about the next three weeks that we'd rather not think about the troubles which lie beyond Theresa's coronation.

Everybody knows the Tories will win and win big. They're so confident that they're asking for an open mandate to do whatever they want .They'll get it though we haven't the foggiest idea what they'll actually do.

Everybody knows that taxes must go up to pay for our overstrained health service, our underfunded education and to end the long disinvestment in housing but no one's prepared to admit it. So the media can rubbish Labour's plans and create fear of something the Tories will do anyway.

Everybody knows that Brexit will mean bashing Britain's head against a big brick wall .The Europeans are a devious , duplicitous lot committed to humiliate us rather than see sense Yet all British  parties  still claim that they can do it better than the other lot even though in fact none can do owt.

Everybody knows that without a strong Labour opposition  the Tories can do whatever they want, come to any deal or non deal they want, tax as little or as much as they please and make austerity harsher or softer. Yet they still don't mind that Labour will lose seats.

Everybody knows that most of Labour's policies are right and necessary and that the Tories don't have any at all Yet they'll still vote for the latter not the former

Everybody knows that Corbyn is a good, honest man but Theresa is a cold  difficult woman  with a lot of Tory prejudices on grammar schools and immigration but they'll still rubbish him and  elect her.

Everybody knows that British capitalists are a ,lot of greedy, exploitative bastards who'd rather leach on the state and drain their companies than get out and compete in world markets. But they'll still  believe that business iscrippled by tax and regulations rather than its own incompetence.

Everybody knows that Labour benefits the many Tories the few but they don't mind because they feel that they themselves are the frustrated few who deserve a better deal at the expense of lazy, workshy bastards living like pigs, i.e. The rest of the country.

Everybody knows that the economy is kept going only by a huge bubble of debt which is certain to burst at some time. No one wants to know about that

Everybody knows that they'll achieve more together than they can separately .They won't because the British don't like each other that much

Everybody knows that this rant is right but they prefer not to listen to politicians who are  only in it for themselves and have already ruined a wonderful country, despite their own strenuous efforts to make it great.

Can we trust the Vicar's Daughter?

This election looks to be over before it's even started. The pundittieri and the press tell us it will be a Tory landslide. The TV screens  are full of vox poppers chanting"I've always been Labour but I'm not going to vote for Corbyn" and electoral calculus tell us that a swathe of Labour seats will be lost. Its beginning to look like a coronation rather than a contest.

But what comes next once May is triumphantly crowned? The LibDems accept the referendum but really want to ignore it and stay in. Labour's policy is a compromise with reality: withdraw on the same terms as we're in.Tony Blair Paddy Ashdown, and Cleggie, Britain's Mini Macrons want us to overule the electorate and lead the EU. To somewhere it doesn't want to go,

All a futile waste of time. Whatever our opposition parties say about what kind of Brexit they want, they're not going to get it.The outcome depends on a devious dirty dealing EU which will in the end do whatever Mrs Merkel wants. They'll  use the same tricky tactics they used to crush Greece, get Yanis Varoufakis out and reverse the decision of their electorate. It will be a dirty game in which they call the shots, encourage the domestic opposition, refuse to negotiate, and demand the impossible. There's nothing any opposition party in Britain can do or say about any of that. Nor can they influence the outcome. So why waste time arguing about that now?

Which leaves us with Theresa May. She's campaigning for a strong and stable leadership from a strong and stable electorate which will give a strong and stable mandate to negotiate a strong and stable settlement. That's what I want, though I'd much rather get it from a Labour government in better tune with the British people and I can't accept the other Tory policies the Conservatives are offering with it.

But what happens if she can't get her strong and stable settlement?  Strength gives parties power to betray as well as fight The EU is clearly thinking that faced with a brick wall the silly Brits will give up and return to their cells As the Greeks were forced to do. So what will Theresa do then?

Can we trust the vicar's daughter?. The elective dictatorship allows a party in power to do what it wants .The Tories would be bitterly divided, by a sell out, though they usually reconciles themselves with the facts. Some would even support a climb down. The LibDems,SNP and probably Labour would back that. The electorate would be angry and bemused. They tend not to like humiliation. But what can the peasants do? Having been betrayed before they're getting inured to it.

Sad choice. Much of the blame that we have to make it is Labour's fault. If the party hadn't drifted out of touch with the people it would have taken a more sensible position from the start rather than setting itself up as Polly Toynbee's army on the front line of the liberal elite. It didn't. It's been in chaos ever since. 

I'll vote Labour of course but the third of Labour supporters who voted Leave and the people we left behind in its old in its old heartlands should never have been forced into a position of trust Theresa or bust.Surely it's time for Labour to speak for the people not the EU.