Saturday, 27 May 2017

Will there be a real election?

Is this beginning to turn into a real election rather than a coronation? A You Gov poll says the Tory lead is down to 5% and the cock up over elderly care has shown that Theresa can be weak and wobbly rather than strong and stable. Then when she's called to account she hides behind a brick wall and lies. Bad for confidence. Bad for a tough approach to EU negotiations.
It could be a rogue poll?  Fear produced by the Manchester horror can swing support back to government. Corbyn's rise may heighten fear of beardy weirdies (Branson please note) but if the gap really is closing then people might be realising what this election is really about.

It's not about Brexit. Even if Theresa wins all the seats outside Scotland it won't stop the EU treating her like Yanis Varoufakis in drag. Look how little use the Greek referendum was. It only made the EU terms nastier to punish Greece for whipping up the people against the sacred EU.It's not about all the nice things the Tory Party is promising. They'll revert to type when they win and their type can be nasty. It's not about Labour's plans most of which are good and necessary but useless because they'll not get chance to implement them.

It's about whether we want a government with a big majority which can do anything it wants because it has no opposition to drag it to the Centre ground , stop the follies, and argue for sense. 

A majority as big as originally seemed possible means an elective dictatorship. A government with a small one has to listen. The nation voted for such a balance in 2010 when it rejected a tired Labour Party but didn't give enough seats to the Tories to form a government. Same in 2015 when they still didn't want Labour but didn't endorse the Tories either.

People want government kept on a short lead. They prefer narrow majorities because that forces ministers to listen rather than ride roughshod over every thing. They want a strong opposition to check the bastards and stop the reign of prejudice. Mrs Thatcher demonstrated the dangers of that and they don't want to repeat it.

Hopefully balance is  what they'll vote for. It's certainly what Labour must fight for and their best we'll get if the nation prefers Theresa to Jeremy. If the polls continue to narrow that's what we'll get and it would be the best possible outcome until Labour looks like a party of government not a civil war on wheels.

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