Monday, 26 June 2017

Thundering herd tramples Theresa

These days we don't reach considered decisions after serious discussion. We thunder in herds, first in new direction then back in another.That's how bankers speculate, politicians think and pundits come to conclusions. Modernisation doesn't moderate it. It only means that the herds are getting bigger, the thundering louder and the changes of direction bigger.

Now it's Theresa May's turn to be trampled. A few weeks back the herd were busy trampling Cameron and praising Theresa as the savior of the Just Managing Folk and the  great equalizer.Now they've suddenly discovered that she's weak and wilting,about to be replaced, deeply unpopular and  incapable of carrying on. The herd even ruminates on the collapse of the government and an early election.

It's all bull. Don't believe a word of it. In their excitement the pundittieri have forgotten the basic facts they should have known about British government.
 It's an elective dictatorship. The party with a majority controls the House of Commons and can do anything it wants. It can skate on thin ice and continue to skate even after the ice has melted as Jim Callaghan did in 1978.

If the majority is small or there's a hung Parliament, the government still has to govern. So  its perfectly legitimate to come to deals either for coalition, as David Cameron did in 2010, or to agreements for support in motions of supply and confidence as the Lib/Lab pact did in 1976.

To say otherwise is to say that some seats are inferior to others. We are a union. Ulster MPs are as legitimate as Welsh or Cornish. So its hardly reasonable to argue that MPs shouldn't use their power to win a better deal for their constituents. In fact  all do.The Scot Nats could do a deal if they want to, and the Sein Fein MPs who moan about the deal are simply admitting how daft they are in taking their pay but not their seats. No presence no power

In fact I'm surprised how little the Democratic Unionists have asked. They could have changed history had they supported Jim Callaghan's government in March 1979. Then they demanded a gas pipeline to Northern Ireland to give them cheaper power but Jim was too noble to do deals. He lost power by one vote. Now they've only demanded a few billion when they could have asked for Orange parades, more Parliamentary seats for Northern Ireland, the remaking of every road and pies for every Protestant.

So my prediction is that Theresa can carry on and still do pretty well what she wants. The danger isn't now but two years ahead if she doesn't get a good deal on Brexit and has to crawl back or climb down. Both parties are divided on this. There'll be endless rows about what to do and who's to blame and we'll be in a real mess. But then the answer isn't another election. It's proportional representation, the only way out when parties and the nation are  fragmented.The major parties have resisted it for years but if neither can govern its the only way to form a government. Then every MP will have the power to demand their own deal in return for their vote.

1 comment:

  1. Don't want proportional representation thank you very much. The sort of deal haggling with the DUP that seems to have upset so many would almost certainly be the "plat du jour", and I don't want to see extremist parties or those representing "communities" getting a foothold into Westminster. PR?...just say no.