Friday, 24 July 2015

The Myth of Blairism

In all the media manufactured fear and the candidate jealousy about Jeremy Corbyn  and the claims that if he wins Osborne will get a thousand year reich and Labour will go to the  same fate as the Liberals or the Whigs we have tended to forget one essential fact.

Oppositions don't win governments lose. The nicest most virtuous and Blairite Labour Party in the world ain't going to win if Osborne's policies work. But they won't. The Tories won in 2015 because the electorate usually gives a first time incumbent the benefit of the doubt and a second chance

Since then the doubts have got greater the desperate promises are being dropped and three factors point to failure. Policies against the grain of sense ain't going to work. The consequences for the poor will be highly publicised and arouse altruism and stimulate their sense of fairness and the cuts will hit his middle class vote as well as the workers they're intended to punish. Specifically their quality of life will decline, crime will rise, their kids will be debt risen and homeless and their services will become shabbier.They're not unhappy at the working class being punished but would rather it was done to benefit them rather than foreigners, banks and the big corporations.

Blair won in 1997 when the economy was growing strongly. People weren't scared, they'd had 18 years to get fed up of the Tories and the government had lost credibility over the ERM. None of that applied in 2015 and the best Labour could hope was a minority government with coalition support which scared folk cos the SNP was the only support offering and that made people fear for the union.

So Labour should avoid sudden new answers, changes and mea culpas, stick to its policies and protests and wait for revulsion to build so  the situation comes its way. We can't produce that change but when, if we stick to basics we can say I told you so ,underline it and show how we can deal with it not compound it. 

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